Sarah Hooper
Published December 2, 2025 12:11pm
Updated December 2, 2025 12:11pm
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If invaded, Caracas could deploy guerrilla warfare tactics (Picture: AFP)
As tensions continue to simmer between Donald Trump and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, it’s been reported that the army could be preparing to wage a guerrilla war if the US attempts a ground invasion.
There have been rumblings of a potential conflict between Venezuela and the United States for months now, with dozens of warships and coast guard vessels gathering in the Caribbean Sea.
The US Army vastly outnumbers that of Venezuela, but there is a way Maduro’s troops could stall a ground invasion.
Guerrilla warfare resistance could be utilised by paramilitaries and locals, essentially sabotaging any US movement in the country.
If that doesn’t work, ‘anarchisation’ would unleash chaos on the streets of Caracas, the capital city, making Venezuela ‘ungovernable’ for any foreign country.
Dr Carlos Solar, a Senior Research Fellow in Latin American Security at RUSI, told Metro that though the possibility of these warfare tactics is real, if the US is successful in their strikes, there won’t be many units of the Venezuelan army willing to continue the fight.
‘Guerrillas usually keep their struggle because they have ways to secure access to ammunition, logistical routes, and supplies. This is difficult to visualise in the current conditions holding together the Venezuelan army,’ he said.
Maduro has suggested ‘anarchisation’ could hinder US troops (Picture: Reuters)
Civilians also aren’t a reliable source for fighting, he explained: ‘Even if Maduro claims that a paramilitary force is ready, this is a strategy used by dictators to raise the people in arms.
‘Venezuelans are eager for peace and a return to democracy to return to the country they used to have.’
Guerrilla warfare and partial anarchisation have been used in other parts of Latin America, such as Colombia and Haiti, but criminal groups often take power in times of uncertainty.
What is guerrilla warfare?
Guerilla warfare is a strategy used by resistance fighters who often don’t fight on the frontlines, but rather try to strike vulnerable targets to stop the other side.
Many soldiers conceal themselves, booby-trap areas and destroy major infrastructure to stop other forces from moving forward.
It doesn’t always involve a large army, though guerrilla tactics have been deployed by national armies before.
‘To avoid going into a guerrilla type of warfare, the US should strategise in a way that any potential military engagement does not allow for certain conditions to happen,’ Dr Solar said.
‘This includes disbanding the Venezuelan armed forces, losing control of large caches of weapons, permitting the flow of criminal groups into the country, and leaving a vacuum of authority that could turn into fertile territory for urban or rural violence.’
How do Venezuelans feel about a potential conflict?
Military drills have been taking place, with citizens taking part (Picture: Reuters)
A conflict with the world’s military superpower is a daunting threat, but Venezuelans have been living in tough conditions for more than a decade.
A massive economic and political crisis has been underway in Venezuela since 2010. In the chaos, this year alone, prices of food have gone up by an estimated 548%, and are forecast to get worse.
‘We’re scared, silent, afraid they’ll throw us in jail. I used to post things, but not anymore – I shouldn’t – because I don’t know who might turn me in,’ one worker from southern Venezuela told the BBC.
‘There’s hope, faith, but people are quiet out of fear. You don’t hear anyone talking about it; it’s just at home, with your family, but there’s a hint of joy,’ one woman added, referencing a potential US intervention.
Barbara Marrero told the BBC: ‘We’re all waiting for something to happen because it’s fair and necessary. We’ve been living in absolute misery for years… but everyone is afraid, and nobody says anything.’
What weapons does Venezuela have?
Venezuela has access to Russian-made Buk M2E missile systems (Picture: AFP)
Out of a total population of 31 million, only 15 million residents in Venezuela are available, and 12 million are currently fit for service.
The military consists of 109,000 active personnel, with paramilitary forces far outnumbering those of the Army, Air Force and Navy.
The shortage of military equipment – most of which is Russian-made and decades old – poses a major problem for Maduro.
Initial reports show that Maduro has already deployed thousands of Russian-supplied Igla missiles, which could be used for ‘surprise’ attacks.
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Anti-vehicle weaponry could also halt troop movement on the ground if the US were to invade.
Venezuela is allied with Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cuba.
The Washington Post reported that Maduro asked China, Iran and Russia for military equipment as the threat from the United States increases.
But so far, none have come to his aid, leaving him with the decades-old weaponry.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected].
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