Eric Swalwell’s Chances of Becoming California Governor

By Martha McHardy

US News Reporter

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Representative Eric Swalwell’s entry into the 2026 California governor’s race is already reshaping expectations, with betting markets rapidly adjusting to his newly declared candidacy.

Betting market platform Kalshi shows that as of Friday morning, Swalwell has a 41 percent chance of becoming California governor. That is up from a 33 percent chance yesterday.

Why It Matters

Swalwell’s decision jolts an already volatile 2026 gubernatorial field, introducing a well-known national figure into a race dominated until now by state-level contenders.

His candidacy could reshape fundraising dynamics, alter coalition strategies within the Democratic Party, and influence how competing campaigns frame issues such as public safety, housing and tech regulation.

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What To Know

Swalwell announced his candidacy during an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on Thursday.

"I love California, it’s the greatest country in the world," Swalwell told Kimmel. "But that’s why it p***es me off to see Californians running through the fields where they work from ICE agents or troops in our streets—it’s horrifying—or cancer research being cancelled," he said.

"It’s awful to look at and our state, this great state, [which] needs a fighter and a protector, someone who will bring prices down, lift wages up. And we can say that we’re the fourth-largest economy in the world—and we are and I love to brag about that—but what does that mean if you can’t afford to live here?

"So I’ve been in these fights, as a city council member, up in Dublin, my hometown, as a prosecutor in Oakland and taking on the most corrupt president ever in the U.S. Congress. But I’m ready to bring this fight home. So, I came here tonight Jimmy to tell you and your audience that I am running to be the next governor of California."

Swalwell joins a crowded field of candidates, including former state attorney general and HHS secretary Xavier Becerra, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, and billionaire activist and past presidential contender Tom Steyer.

According to Kalshi, Steyer has a 17 percent chance of becoming California governor, while Porter has a 14 percent chance. Becerra has just a 4 percent chance.

Both Steyer and Porter have seen their chances decrease since Swalwell entered the race, from 23 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Porter was previously a frontrunner, but has been under intense scrutiny following a viral interview incident and resurfaced abuse allegations from her divorce proceedings, allegations she continues to deny.

Meanwhile, an October poll of 1,000 likely primary voters by EMC Research showed Swalwell ahead of multiple well-known Democrats already in the field.

The poll showed Republican commentator Steve Hilton leading with 20 percent, followed by Porter at 16 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 14 percent. Swalwell landed in the next tier at 11 percent—outperforming veteran contenders such as Becerra, who registered 9 percent, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 5 percent.

The poll was conducted for an outside group backing the congressman.