Democrats Chances of Flipping GOP Governor's Mansion...

By Andrew Stanton

Weekend Staff Writer

ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project member

Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is in for a tight race next year, according to a new poll released on Friday.

Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Nevada is a key swing state that has shifted between Democrats and Republicans over the past decade. At the presidential level, President Donald Trump lost the state in 2016 and 2020 but became the first Republican to win it in two decades in the 2024 election. The gubernatorial race remains a top target for Democrats, who are hoping the president’s declining approval rating could be a drag on Republicans in the midterms.

What to Know

Lombardo flipped the governorship in the 2022 midterms, unseating then-Governor Steve Sisolak in what became a warning sign for Democrats about the state trajectory two years later. It was a close race, with Lombardo winning by less than two percentage points. The 2026 race is viewed as competitive.

Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is viewed as the likely candidate, having received support from the state’s most prominent Democrats. The new poll from Emerson College showed the two locked in a tight race.

...

Both Lombardo and Ford received 41 percent support in the survey, with 18 percent of respondents saying they’re still unsure of how they would vote.

It surveyed 800 registered voters from November 16-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A Noble Predictive Insights poll last month gave Lombardo a three-point lead over Ford (40 percent to 37 percent). Twenty-three percent of respondents were still undecided. It surveyed 766 registered voters between October 7-13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.54 percentage points, reported Las Vegas news station KTNV.

The poll comes after Lombardo secured the endorsement of the Clark County Education Association, the largest teachers union in the state.

Trump carried Nevada by more than three percentage points in the 2024 presidential race.

What People Are Saying

Jaron Zhou, head of politics at Kalshi, responded to the poll on X: "Lombardo approval is a lot lower than I thought—in my head he was still a pretty popular governor. Is that not true anymore?"

Matthew Klein, a Cook Political Report analyst, wrote on X: "Ousting an incumbent governor is very hard. But if there’s any state where cost of living challenges/tourism decline could become a headache for Republicans, it’s Nevada."

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, wrote in a polling memo: "Lombardo holds an eight-point lead among independents, though 40% remain undecided. Ford’s strengths are among Hispanic voters, who back him by 16 points, and women, who break for the attorney general by five points."